Top MAGA pollster warns Republicans will lose the majority for ‘the next decade’ if Trump gets involved in Israel-Iran

A top MAGA pollster has warned that the Republicans may lose the majority in Congress “for the next decade” if President Donald Trump gets the U.S. more closely embroiled in the Israel-Iran conflict.

Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris took to X on Monday to argue that “Starting new foreign wars never helps a presidency. But it sure as Hell can end one, especially one predicated on not starting new wars overseas when we've been invaded and neglected at home.”

“The MAGA movement was never anti-war for the sake of being anti-war,” he added. “It was a position stemming from the lies the ruling class used to get us involved in pointless wars. Israel needing to attack Iran ‘preemptively’ because nuclear capabilities are imminent, is a lie.”

“Kiss the Republican majority goodbye... For the next decade. If he pulls the trigger, it's all over for MAGA,” said Baris.

A poll conducted by the Ronald Reagan Institute before Israel began its bombardment of Iran’s military and nuclear program on Friday found that a majority of Republicans back Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

At the same time, polling also shows that Americans are concerned about the U.S. being pulled into a military conflict in the region. Last year, Quinnipiac University found that 86 percent of GOP voters were worried about the prospect, with 52 percent describing their views as “very concerned.”

However, there is a divide among influential people supportive of the president, with some advocating for a strong response and others arguing that Trump voters supported him because he pledged not to get the U.S. involved in any more conflicts.

Trump demanded an “unconditional surrender” from Iran on Tuesday as he issued a thinly veiled threat that he may take aim at Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers,” the president said on Truth Social. “Our patience is wearing thin.”

On Monday night, speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump said he was looking for a “real end” to the hostilities.

"Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, it's very simple," said the president. "They should have done the deal. I told them, do the deal. So I don't know. I'm not too much in the mood to negotiate."

"We're not involved in it. It's possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved," he told ABC News on Sunday.

On Monday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicated that the U.S. isn’t set to strike Iran.

Northeastern University political science professor Costas Panagopoulos told Newsweek that Trump could “take a colossal hit” in backing from his own base of support if the U.S. takes direct action in a Middle East conflict.

"Such action would represent the antithesis of how Trump has branded himself," said Panagopoulos. "It could be the straw that breaks MAGA's back."