First Canada, now Australia – might a new anti-Trump Western alliance be about to form?

A seismic shift has just occurred in Australian politics. In a campaign marked by Trump-style “culture war” rhetoric, conservative leader Peter Dutton suffered a landslide defeat, but also his own seat, which he had held since 2001.

It’s a fate that echoes what happened just a week earlier in Canada, where Mark Carney’s centrist party overtook the Conservatives despite lagging earlier in polls, largely by linking their leader, Pierre Poilievre, to Trump.

After what has been described as “a win for the ages”, Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party looks likely to have won a record number of parliamentary seats, and will govern with a significant majority. The win marks an incredible political shift after polls since late November showed a neck-and-neck race, with many conservatives feeling that a Trump-lite wave was ready to break open Australian politics. But what looks clear is that this election was not just a story of a swing towards Labor politics, it was a rejection of a right-wing party that fumbled through a campaign trying to import Trump-style policies, climate denial, culture wars and public service cuts, that simply don’t resonate with Australia’s increasingly urban, younger voters. As Kos Samaras, a Labor Party strategist noted on Radio National following the polls, “an emerging generation has completely and utterly rejected the form of conservative politics that the Coalition was selling this election." That rings true, especially in key urban seats that were once the heartland for the Liberal party, where climate-conscious, independent candidates saw significant gains, cementing their place within the Australian political landscape.

This mirrors Canada’s swing, where Carney flipped a 27-point deficit by campaigning on climate and the cost of living.

With the win in Australia, you could almost argue that the US president has now helped to elect two anti-Trump candidates in just over three months.

These weren’t just political wins – they reflected a public mood that seems increasingly at odds with Trump-style politics, including climate denial. In both countries, candidates who leaned into those tactics were voted out.

And what’s more, these two candidates not only lead two of the most important strategic and economic allies the United States has, they are resource-rich superpowers. Together, Canada and Australia are crucial producers of uranium, lithium, gold, potash, iron ore, coal and gas globally.

Going forward, Albanese will likely find a close ally in Carney, and hope to develop a relationship that has historically been underdone. At Brookfield Asset Management between 2020 and 2024, Carney was deeply involved in Australia’s energy transition as Albanese came to power, and the two have already worked together to get vegemite on the menu in a Toronto cafe.

As Carney declared after his victory: “We will build coalitions, defend democracy, and stand up for our values on the world stage. As others step back from global leadership, Canada is stepping up.”

That statement may signal a broader intent – not just to lead at home, but to re-anchor international climate cooperation, especially as Albanese will now look to host the UN climate talks in two years. They will likely find an obvious alliance partner in Keir Starmer, who noted on Albanese’s victory that “the UK and Australia are as close as ever”. Canada, Australia and the UK represent the three biggest powers within the Commonwealth. Similarly, Mexico’s climate-scientist president, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, who may not be a traditional ally of the UK, Canada and Australia, could be thrust into an unlikely alliance as a result of Trump’s geopolitical vandalism.

Collectively, they represent a club of significant middle-power countries with critical roles in global finance and resource supply chains, with clear climate values and largely united political positions. They also represent the most important trade, security and strategic partners the US has had since the Second World War. While an individual shift away from the US would be daunting, as a collective, that less-travelled path might become far more intriguing.

That’s where a climate alliance could play a central role. While the net zero debate is heating up across the UK, it will be strengthened internationally only with a new push for investment, renewable energy rollouts and industrial emissions cuts across Australia, Canada and Mexico.

With the election, Albanese will now need to focus on realising his revolutionary domestic renewable energy rollout. To do so, he will need to inspire billions of dollars of new investments in renewables, but also to ensure that the electricity grid and the battery storage that backs it up will not only bring down costs long term but remain free from blackouts.

At the same time, he will need to strengthen the country’s emissions reduction policy, focused on industrial emitters. This was also a key element of Carney’s election campaign in Canada, which sought to shift the responsibility for emissions cuts from consumers to the country’s biggest emitters, and inspire a wave of investments in clean energy infrastructure.

Mexico’s Sheinbaum has similarly signalled that her administration aims to achieve a significant shift towards renewable energy in Mexico, and is seeking to leverage up to $40 billion in new investments in energy infrastructure. These domestic ambitions will naturally flow into the international arena, particularly as Australia looks to secure the hosting of the UN climate talks in 2026 by June, and begin an 18-month diplomatic campaign to rally global support for more aggressive climate action, strengthen international partnerships, and buffer against Trump-style politics that seek to distract and disrupt global climate cooperation.In sum, thanks to Trump, climate could be back on the agenda.